It is not a secret that there is a mass exodus of people from Nigeria especially among the working middle class. Most people who can, have taken advantage of immigration opportunities and have fled the country. And we are not talking small numbers here, a few days ago a popular Nigerian writer on LinkedIn wrote an article where he wrote that a company in Lagos had lost the entire staff of one of its department to Canada (https://www.tekedia.com/nigerians-big-exodus-to-canada/). Just think about that, an entire team in a company left the country and emigrated to Canada.
Most people who have left the country, have left in search of a better quality of life for themselves and their families. Nigeria is hard core; with infrastructure and amenities lacking, it is a drain on resources and willpower to keep going on. Though opportunities abound, many prefer the simpler and possibly less stressful way of living that developed countries have to offer than to toil endlessly in Nigeria.
But Nigerians in diaspora have a lot to say about the state of affairs back home; they would like to see things in the country improve, they want infrastructure to be available for businesses to thrive, they want a more secure society with amenities readily available and provided by the government. They would like to come back home when things improve, after all home is home.
It has been very interesting to see the contributions of Nigerians in diaspora during the electoral discourse and especially as the country has prepared for and is about to vote. But this discourse has mainly been on social media and other media outlets, because unfortunately Nigeria does not have the capability for its citizens outside the country to participate in the electoral process. The electoral commission is still trying to get things right on the ground and that is their priority, before they start to think about getting Nigerians in diaspora involved in the process.
So what does this mean with respect to the elections? Those who have fled the country in search of greener pastures, with the intention to come back when things get better, have left the chances of their ever returning home in the hands of a majority lower class, a diminished middle working class and a minority upper class.
The majority of those in the upper class are politicians or have political affiliations; these follow where the wind is blowing because it directly impacts their bottom line and net worth. Quite frankly they're doing just fine despite the state of the economy and have put in place multiple levels of back up plans and nest eggs; so anyhow the elections go nothing spoil. They will align and continue business as usual.
The greatly diminished middle class have reduced leverage to be impactful as a demographic; not only because so many have fled, but also because for those left behind a good number are not interested or have no faith in the electoral process. They do not believe their votes will make a difference either because of the questionable quality of the presidential candidates fielded by the major political parties PDP and APC, or because they do not think the process will be free and fair. A good number of people in this category support candidates from the other political parties but perhaps know that their candidates will not have enough votes to win. Basically between the choice of the devil and the deep blue sea, a good number of people in this category will prefer to sit it out.
This leaves the last class, the lower class who have the numbers to influence the results. These are grass roots people and the parties closest to the grass roots are the two major political parties. Unfortunately these are the people who, if adequately compensated, are swayed to vote one way or another. If the electoral process is free and fair and votes cast are reported, the results would move in the direction this group of people have voted.
So in a nutshell, for Nigerians in diaspora that have intentions of returning home, the possibility and timeline for this is dependent to a large extent on those whom we have left the country for, until such a time that our electoral process matures to allow for those living outside the country to vote.
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